The Library

Ordinary investment beliefs, checked.

19 verdicts so far. 9 beat the S&P 500 over their own period; 7 did not. Every one is a permanent page you can paste at anyone.

dividend vs growth stocks long run

Dividend stocks are safer than growth stocks over the long run.

$48,260

index $45,429

2016–2026

+382.6% vs +354.3%

semiconductors vs s&p 500 since 2015

Semiconductor stocks will keep beating the S&P 500 because of AI demand.

$227,686

index $45,379

2015–2026

+2176.9% vs +353.8%

60/40 stock-bond allocation test

The 60/40 portfolio is dead now that bonds don't hedge stocks anymore.

$27,707

index $45,429

2016–2026

+177.1% vs +354.3%

european defence stocks since 2015

European defence stocks since 2015.

$35,130

index $45,379

2015–2026

+251.3% vs +353.8%

defence stocks as long-term safe bet

Defense stocks are the safest long-term bet with wars escalating.

$50,642

index $45,429

2016–2026

+406.4% vs +354.3%

small cap value vs large cap growth

Small cap value stocks are due to finally beat large cap growth.

$27,268

index $51,107

2016–2026

+172.7% vs +411.1%

ai chip stocks historical performance

Nvidia and the AI chip stocks are in a bubble that is about to pop.

$522,155

index $41,459

2016–2026

+5121.5% vs +314.6%

gold vs stocks since 2005

If I had put $10,000 into gold in 2005 instead of stocks.

$95,046

index $94,836

2005–2026

+850.5% vs +848.4%

energy vs tech across full history

Energy stocks outperform tech stocks when inflation is high.

$27,033

index $87,648

2016–2026

+170.3% vs +776.5%

total market vs s&p 500 index

A total market fund always beats picking individual S&P 500 stocks.

$43,792

index $45,429

2016–2026

+337.9% vs +354.3%

gold vs bonds as crash ballast

Gold is a better ballast than bonds when stocks crash.

$20,211

index $45,429

2016–2026

+102.1% vs +354.3%

monthly dca into s&p 500 since 2010

Putting $500 a month into the S&P 500 since 2010.

$480,342

index $480,342

2010–2026

+338.7% vs +338.7%

sell in may seasonal timing rule

Sell in May and go away still works as a market timing rule.

$28,973

index $45,429

2016–2026

+189.7% vs +354.3%

buy and hold s&p 500

Just buy the S&P 500 index fund and never look at it again.

$41,459

index $41,459

2016–2026

+314.6% vs +314.6%

tesla since ipo annual buying

buying Tesla stock every year since its IPO

$2,382,172

index $99,512

2010–2026

+23721.7% vs +895.1%

gold vs stocks since 2005

if I had put $10,000 into gold in 2005 instead of stocks

$95,046

index $94,836

2005–2026

+850.5% vs +848.4%

nuclear and uranium stocks next decade

Nuclear and uranium stocks are the next decade's biggest winners.

$40,809

index $18,305

2022–2026

+308.1% vs +83.0%

nasdaq buy and hold since 2000

Buying the Nasdaq and never selling since 2000.

$89,618

index $84,488

2000–2026

+796.2% vs +744.9%

obesity drug stocks vs s&p 500

Obesity drug stocks are overhyped and due for a crash.

$67,263

index $45,429

2016–2026

+572.6% vs +354.3%