The Library
Ordinary investment beliefs, checked.
19 verdicts so far. 9 beat the S&P 500 over their own period; 7 did not. Every one is a permanent page you can paste at anyone.
dividend vs growth stocks long run
“Dividend stocks are safer than growth stocks over the long run.”
$48,260
index $45,429
2016–2026
+382.6% vs +354.3%
semiconductors vs s&p 500 since 2015
“Semiconductor stocks will keep beating the S&P 500 because of AI demand.”
$227,686
index $45,379
2015–2026
+2176.9% vs +353.8%
60/40 stock-bond allocation test
“The 60/40 portfolio is dead now that bonds don't hedge stocks anymore.”
$27,707
index $45,429
2016–2026
+177.1% vs +354.3%
european defence stocks since 2015
“European defence stocks since 2015.”
$35,130
index $45,379
2015–2026
+251.3% vs +353.8%
defence stocks as long-term safe bet
“Defense stocks are the safest long-term bet with wars escalating.”
$50,642
index $45,429
2016–2026
+406.4% vs +354.3%
small cap value vs large cap growth
“Small cap value stocks are due to finally beat large cap growth.”
$27,268
index $51,107
2016–2026
+172.7% vs +411.1%
ai chip stocks historical performance
“Nvidia and the AI chip stocks are in a bubble that is about to pop.”
$522,155
index $41,459
2016–2026
+5121.5% vs +314.6%
gold vs stocks since 2005
“If I had put $10,000 into gold in 2005 instead of stocks.”
$95,046
index $94,836
2005–2026
+850.5% vs +848.4%
energy vs tech across full history
“Energy stocks outperform tech stocks when inflation is high.”
$27,033
index $87,648
2016–2026
+170.3% vs +776.5%
total market vs s&p 500 index
“A total market fund always beats picking individual S&P 500 stocks.”
$43,792
index $45,429
2016–2026
+337.9% vs +354.3%
gold vs bonds as crash ballast
“Gold is a better ballast than bonds when stocks crash.”
$20,211
index $45,429
2016–2026
+102.1% vs +354.3%
monthly dca into s&p 500 since 2010
“Putting $500 a month into the S&P 500 since 2010.”
$480,342
index $480,342
2010–2026
+338.7% vs +338.7%
sell in may seasonal timing rule
“Sell in May and go away still works as a market timing rule.”
$28,973
index $45,429
2016–2026
+189.7% vs +354.3%
buy and hold s&p 500
“Just buy the S&P 500 index fund and never look at it again.”
$41,459
index $41,459
2016–2026
+314.6% vs +314.6%
tesla since ipo annual buying
“buying Tesla stock every year since its IPO”
$2,382,172
index $99,512
2010–2026
+23721.7% vs +895.1%
gold vs stocks since 2005
“if I had put $10,000 into gold in 2005 instead of stocks”
$95,046
index $94,836
2005–2026
+850.5% vs +848.4%
nuclear and uranium stocks next decade
“Nuclear and uranium stocks are the next decade's biggest winners.”
$40,809
index $18,305
2022–2026
+308.1% vs +83.0%
nasdaq buy and hold since 2000
“Buying the Nasdaq and never selling since 2000.”
$89,618
index $84,488
2000–2026
+796.2% vs +744.9%
obesity drug stocks vs s&p 500
“Obesity drug stocks are overhyped and due for a crash.”
$67,263
index $45,429
2016–2026
+572.6% vs +354.3%