The thesis
“Nuclear and uranium stocks are the next decade's biggest winners.”
How buffet read it
$10,000 split across a basket of nuclear and uranium ETFs and individual stocks.
Two broad ETFs (NLR, URA) anchor the portfolio; four individual names (BWXT, CEG, VST, CCJ) add direct exposure.
Portfolio rebalanced annually, dividends reinvested.
Period: 2016–2026.
Benchmark: S&P 500.
NLR 25%, URA 25%, BWXT 13%, CEG 13%, VST 13%, CCJ 13% · 1,156 trading days · benchmark SPY
$10,000 became
$0
The same money in the S&P 500 would have been $18,305 over 2022–2026 — the thesis came out ahead by $22,504.
The worst stretch
−36.7%, January 2025 to April 2025 — you would have sat through two months of that, and it took until June 2025 to get back to level.
the S&P 500 fell 22.1% at its worst over the same period. The thesis moved 34.5% a year against 17.5% for the index.
Where the thesis was wrong
The thesis beat the S&P 500 by +225.1 percentage points over 2016–2026, ending at $40,809 against the index's $18,305 on the same $10,000. That gap depended heavily on CEG and VST, which returned +538.9% and +581.3% respectively but only entered the backtest in 2022, shortening their legs considerably. In 2026 the portfolio lost −4.3% while the index gained +13.4%, and the worst drawdown hit −36.7% between January and April 2025, nearly double the index's −22.1% over the same stretch. Annual volatility ran at 34.5% against the index's 17.5%, so the outperformance came with sustained turbulence that a holder would have had to sit through.
Counter-test
Same money, same schedule, parked in 1–3 month T-bills instead: $11,931.
Year by year
| Year | The thesis | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +15.3% | −13.0% |
| 2023 | +49.2% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +55.8% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +59.1% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | −4.3% | +13.4% |
What this verdict does not include
- US-listed stocks and ETFs only, priced on end-of-day closes.
- No tax, no trading fees, no slippage, no bid-ask spread.
- Dividends are reinvested, because closes are adjusted for them.
- Survivorship is not corrected for: only instruments that exist today are held.
- The thesis asked for 2016, but the price history here starts January 2022. The period above is the real one.
- Only 5 years of history exist for this. Read it accordingly.
- NLR and URA are the primary nuclear/uranium ETFs available in the catalogue; they overlap somewhat in holdings.
- CEG and VST have limited price history (both listed 2022); the backtest period for those legs is shortened accordingly.
- SMR (NuScale) and LEU (Centrus) were excluded to stay within the 6-leg limit; they represent higher-risk, smaller-cap nuclear plays.
- The thesis is forward-looking ('next decade's biggest winners'); this backtest only shows the past 10 years and cannot confirm or deny future performance.
Keep this thesis
buffet re-runs it once a month and mails you the new number. Nothing else is ever sent.
Another thesis
Every verdict names something it could not test. That gap is usually the next thesis.
Run another thesis — $5